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Majority 2017

The Conservatives have failed to gain a majority thanks to approximately 400 voters in eight constituencies.

Here's how.

The Conservatives needed 326 seats to gain a majority, but have only gained 318, which is eight short.

Therefore we need to consider the eight most marginal seats in which the Conservatives came in second place.

Here's the first of those.

Perth & Perthshire North maj 21

The SNP's majority of 21 in Perth & Perthshire North would have been wiped out if just 11 people who voted for the SNP had voted Conservative instead. Not voting one way brings the majority down to 10, and then voting the other way creates a Conservative majority of 1.

Here are the next seven most marginal Conservative losses.

Dudley North maj 22
Newcastle-under-Lyme maj 30
Kensington maj 35???
Crewe & Nantwich maj 48
Canterbury maj 187
Barrow & Furness maj 209
Keighley maj 249

Had these seven majorities also swung to the Conservatives instead of Labour then the Conservatives would have had 326 seats out of 650, which is technically a majority. And for that to happen, what's needed is for half of those forming the majority to switch from red to blue.

Perth & Perthshire North 11 switchers
Dudley North 12 switchers
Newcastle-under-Lyme 16 switchers
Kensington 18 switchers
Crewe & Nantwich 25 switchers
Canterbury 94 switchers
Barrow & Furness 105 switchers
Keighley 125 switchers

Adding the switcher figures for all eight constituencies gives a total of 406.

406 voters choosing to back Theresa rather than the opposition would have raised Tory support sufficiently to create a majority Conservative government.

Caveats:
» No, Kensington hasn't declared yet, so I've had to use the rumoured margin from the last recount. But if the Conservatives eventually win in Kensington, then the 406 total actually goes down.
» Yes, Sinn Féin never turn up at Westminster, so the winning post is effectively 323. And 323 seats is a target the Conservatives could have reached with just 82 more votes!

However the figures fall, the fact remains that there are fewer than 500 voters on whose choice the outcome of this election hinged. If you changed your mind in Perth, Dudley, Crewe or Canterbury, one of those people could be you... and you changed the future.

Thus Article Majority 2017

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