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Title : Paul Manafort and Oleg Deripaska
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Paul Manafort and Oleg Deripaska

Sorry I've been away; I've not been feeling well.

I write this post to pose one simple question: How is the anti-Trumpist cause aided by the revelation that Paul Manafort's communications have been under surveillance since 2014?

Sure, we "Russiagate" junkies love to learn these details, but we also have to think about the broader ramifications. Publication has drawbacks. For one thing, Manafort is now able to do the "martyrella" routinee (as one of my old girlfriends liked to put it).

"If true, it is a felony to reveal the existence of a FISA warrant, regardless of the fact that no charges ever emerged," Manafort spokesman Jason Maloni said in a statement released Tuesday. "The U.S Department of Justice's Inspector General should immediately conduct an investigation into these leaks and to examine the motivations behind a previous administration's effort to surveil a political opponent. Mr. Manafort requests that the Department of Justice release any intercepts involving him and any non-Americans so interested parties can come to the same conclusion as the DOJ – there is nothing there."

From a prosecutorial viewpoint, the revelation of these warrants means that Mueller can no longer pursue a "perjury trap" strategy. Until recently, one could easily imagine a situation in which the FBI or Congress asks Manafort the kind of questions likely to elicit false or misleading responses. Manafort now knows that the intercepts exist, which means that he knows what he can and cannot lie about. He enters into any interrogation forewarned and forearmed.

Not only that. Manafort was Roger Stone's partner. Stone now understands that his own private phone conversations with Manafort are "on the record," as are conversations in which Russians and Ukrainians discuss Stone. Thus, Stone is now harder to catch in a perjury trap.

(By the way: Minimization is supposed to excise the names of Stone and Trump from the Manafort intercepts, but a glance at the transcripts should allow for fairly easy contextual identification.)

Revealing the FISA surveillance of Paul Manafort has given Trump apologists an excuse to insist that the Orange Oaf was right all along when tweeted that Obama "tapped" Trump Tower. (Example.) Of course, the first FISA warrant against Manafort was issued back in 2014, well before the Trump campaign began; no one can reasonably claim that Obama was targeting Trump for political reasons. At any rate, that warrant did not come at the behest of Barack Obama. It was issued by a judge, who felt that there was reasonable cause to suspect that Manafort had committed a crime.

Mere logic, of course, doesn't matter to the Trumpers. They will seize upon any excuse, however flimsy, to proclaim that Il Duce is always right.

Although I question the wisdom of releasing this new information about Manafort, I must admit that we are learning some fascinating stuff. Especially the latest from the WP:

Less than two weeks before Donald Trump accepted the Republican presidential nomination, his campaign chairman offered to provide briefings on the race to a Russian billionaire closely aligned with the Kremlin, according to people familiar with the discussions.

Paul Manafort made the offer in an email to an overseas intermediary, asking that a message be sent to Oleg Deripaska, an aluminum magnate with whom Manafort had done business in the past, these people said.

“If he needs private briefings we can accommodate,” Manafort wrote in the July 7, 2016, email, portions of which were read to The Washington Post along with other Manafort correspondence from that time.

The email exchanges add to an already perilous legal situation for Manafort, whose real estate dealings and overseas bank accounts are of intense interest for Mueller and congressional investigators as part of their examination of Russia’s 2016 efforts. People close to Manafort believe Mueller’s goal is to force the former campaign chairman to flip on his former Trump associates and provide information.

Here's the problem: Unless Mueller can work with the New York prosecutor to bring state charges against Manafort, Trump can simply use the power of the pardon to insure that Manafort keeps his mouth shut. I see no state charges here.

About Deripaska: A writer called Polly Sigh (get it?) has offered some very informative tweets.

Motivation Cyprus records show: before 2016 campaign Manafort was 'in debt' to Deripaska >> stick & carrot #maddow

^ Recall- Manafort's NY racketeering scam w/oligarch Firtash & 🇷🇺mob boss Mogilevich also included Deripaska

Drip drip Jul 19 NYT story: Before Campaign, Manafort Was in Debt to Russian oligarch Deripaska via $17M lawsuit

Private jet owned by Manafort financier Deripaska [BANNED from US] was parked 25 min from Trump's NJ golf course the past 2 days

A private jet belonging to Russian oligarch/mobster Deripaska [paid Manafort] was in NJ Aug 18-19, 2017

In addition to Putin & Kushners, Abramovich is also friends w/ Paul Manafort pal, Russian billionaire Oleg Deripaska.

Manafort's protégé ex-FSB Kilimnik who partnered w/him on Deripaska deal was also UNDER FBI SCRUTINY

^ Notes btwn Manafort & his protégé ex-FSB Kilimnik re Deripaska were vague BUT they met twice in NY in 2016

Here is the July 19 NYT story to which Polly Sigh refers.

Financial records filed last year in the secretive tax haven of Cyprus, where Paul J. Manafort kept bank accounts during his years working in Ukraine and investing with a Russian oligarch, indicate that he had been in debt to pro-Russia interests by as much as $17 million before he joined Donald J. Trump’s presidential campaign in March 2016.

Comey's FBI knew this, or should have known it. It would have been nice if Comey had been willing to tell us this stuff. He was certainly willing to discuss Hillary's silly emails..

The records, which include details for numerous loans, were certified as accurate by an accounting firm as of December 2015, several months before Mr. Manafort joined the Trump campaign, and were filed with Cyprus government authorities in 2016. The notion of indebtedness on the part of Mr. Manafort also aligns with assertions made in a court complaint filed in Virginia in 2015 by the Russian oligarch, Oleg V. Deripaska, who claimed Mr. Manafort and his partners owed him $19 million related to a failed investment in a Ukrainian cable television business.

Mr. Deripaska appears to have stopped pursuing his court action against Mr. Manafort and his former investment partners, Rick Gates and Rick Davis, in late 2015. In addition to the $19 million he said he had invested with Mr. Manafort, Mr. Deripaska claimed he paid Mr. Manafort an additional $7.3 million in management fees.

Huh. So, looks to me as though there was bad blood between Deripaska and Manafort over a dispute concerning more than twenty million dollars. Suddenly, once Donald Trump started his run for the presidency, the dispute went away: Deripaska said, in essence, "All is forgiven."

What do you think caused the sudden onset of this Era of Good Feelings?

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