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Title : War between the US and North Korea: Who benefits?
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War between the US and North Korea: Who benefits?

Previously, I opined that Trump's "calm before the storm" remark referred to some unspecified action against Iran. Looks like I was wrong.

"Presidents and their administrations have been talking to North Korea for 25 years, agreements made and massive amounts of money paid ... hasn't worked, agreements violated before the ink was dry, makings fools of U.S. negotiators. Sorry, but only one thing will work!," Trump wrote on Twitter.

A British tabloid says that Kim Jong-Un has threatened to use anthrax and other toxins against the United States. I haven't seen that claim verified by more reputable sources.

A tweet from congressman Ted Lieu...

Dear @realDonaldTrump: Estimates of war casualties with N Korea could be 2.1 million dead and 7.7 million injured. Get the problem yet?

Indeed I do. But it is also important to comprehend how the problem started. Remember the Connery Bond movies? Blofeld's big plan was to goad the US and the USSR into a war, after which a third force -- led by Blofeld, of course -- could rule whatever was left. Something similar may be afoot right now: The U.S. is being goaded into a war with North Korea in order to benefit a third nation.

North Korea's rapid advance in nuclear development owes much to Russian aid. See here:

Elleman has analyzed North Korean medium-range and intercontinental ballistic missiles of the Hwasong 12 and 14 types, whose extended range holds the potential to hit the United States. He concluded that the surprisingly fast development in the last two years has only been possible with the help of foreign suppliers, meaning countries from the former Soviet Union. Even the German missile expert Robert Schmucker from the Technical University of Munich (TUM) agreed with Elleman's analysis, although he avoided any explicit accusations.

Experts believe that the one-chamber engine used in the latest Hwasong missiles is reminiscent of the Soviet RD-250 rocket engine, which had two chambers and was developed in the 1960s.

It is difficult to prove whether the RD-250 was also manufactured by Yuzhmash. Vitaly Zushtchevski said that they received these engines from Russia, where they were "produced in low quantities." Elleman suggested that they were also made in Ukraine. In his IISS study, he wrote that "hundreds, if not more" RD-250 engines have remained in Russia, as well as in Ukraine, adding it is also possible that Moscow is Pyongyang's supplier.

Also here:

After intensive study, Elleman, a former consultant at the Pentagon, and other specialists would report that they had detected multiple design features in the new North Korean missile engine that echo those of a 1960s-era Soviet workhorse called the RD-250.

There is no record of Pyongyang's obtaining blueprints for the Russian missile engine, and experts disagree on whether it ever did so. But the discovery of similarities has focused new attention on a question that has dogged US analysts for at least the past two years: how has North Korea managed to make surprisingly rapid gains in its missile programme, despite economic sanctions and a near-universal ban on exports of military technology to the impoverished communist state?

Many weapons experts say North Korea's startling display of missile prowess is a reflection of the country's growing mastery of weapons technology, as well its leader's fierce determination to take the country into the nuclear club.

But others see continuing evidence of an outsize role by foreigners, including Russian scientists who provided designs and know-how years ago, and the Chinese vendors who supply the electronics needed for modern missile-guidance systems.

Why would Russia do that? The answer is obvious: A nuclear exchange between North Korea and the United States would advance Putin's goal of destroying American power. I'm not sure that China wouldn't mind living in a "post-American century."

There is no question that the US would "win" a war with North Korea -- but as the old saying has it, even one nuclear missile can ruin your whole day. Los Angeles and Seattle are at risk. One can only imagine what the destruction of a major west coast city would do to this country, both spiritually (if that word is permissible) and economically.

Can we trust our anti-missile defense systems? I'm not sure. We don't know how many of our secrets now belong to Moscow, and we don't know the extent to which the Russians can compromise the military's computers.

Suppose we "win" an exchange. Suppose we act preemptively. What then?

If Trump's recklessness reduces much of the Korean peninsula to a smoldering ruin, the world will despise us for decades to come. Our standing in the world will be greatly lessened, perhaps eradicated. Within this nation, fury over Trump's exercise in mass murder could lead to -- well, God only knows. A military coup? Civil war? Impeachment would be the kindest outcome.

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