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Title : The case for pessimism
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The case for pessimism

Sorry for the lack of posts. After my last little health scare, I considered myself entitled to a brief respite from the news. Besides, most of you won't like what I have to say. I disagree with current liberal presumption that Michael Cohen will soon flip, thereby insuring Donald Trump's rapid doom.

Think again.

How the hell can Cohen flip? Did you see the recent articles linking him to Russian mobsters? The Eye-talians look downright kindhearted and cuddly when compared to the Russians.

In podcasts, newscasts and written articles, pundits keep comparing Cohen to that most famed of flippers, Sammy "the Bull" Gravano, the hitman/consigliere who brought down John Gotti. (Example.) Here's what they're not telling you: Gravano joined the Witness Protection Program and lived in Arizona under an assumed name. He eventually went semi-public and issued a blood-curling warning to anyone who might try to kill him. Perhaps he believed that his fearsome rep would suffice to deter aggression -- or perhaps he had been secretly assured that his "sin" against the mob was forgiven. One could argue he did the Gambino family a favor when he removed Gotti, whose flamboyant antics did not endear him to other mobsters.

(In Godfather III, the Corleones whack the film version of Gotti. Real life was less brutal.)

I just don't see how the Gravano precedent applies to Michael Cohen. Cohen is hardly the sort of guy likely to intimidate a professional thug. Any talk of the Witness Protection Program is a joke. How can the federal government offer protection? Donald Trump is the freakin' president.

Did you know that hackers managed to compromised the UK equivalent of the program? Do you think that Michael Cohen would bet his life that the US program is impenetrable?

I can guess what you you want to say at this point: "Nobody is going to whack Cohen. Too obvious."

Obvious-ness is a feature, not a bug. After a certain point, the would-be tyrant must drop the petticoat and show what lies beneath. The attack in the Skripals was also pretty damned obvious -- hell, the Russians practically signed the painting. Before the poisonings occurred, nobody would have predicted such an event.

Between the Skripal poisoning and the Scooter Libby pardon, Cohen finds himself inhabiting Eddie Izzard's famous "Cake or death" routine. Cohen has crossed paths with more than one Russian oligarch, which means that he has multiple potential enemies.

Sure, it has been grimly hilarious to see everyone -- even Trump himself -- concede that Cohen has the power to incriminate the president. If Trump were an honest man, he'd have nothing to worry about. But he is not an honest man. And for precisely that reason, Cohen will remain the puppy who stays loyal to Master even when Master kicks him in the ribs.

Such is my prediction. Only one thing makes me uncertain of this forecast: Trump offered a tweet which was unhinged even by his standards.

“The New York Times and a third rate reporter named Maggie Haberman, known as a Crooked H flunkie who I don’t speak to and have nothing to do with, are going out of their way to destroy Michael Cohen and his relationship with me in the hope that he will “flip.” They use non-existent “sources” and a drunk/drugged up loser who hates Michael, a fine person with a wonderful family. Michael is a businessman for his own account/lawyer who I have always liked & respected. Most people will flip if the Government lets them out of trouble, even if it means lying or making up stories. Sorry, I don’t see Michael doing that despite the horrible Witch Hunt and the dishonest media!”

Haberman has been no friend to Hillary, and nearly everything else in this text is similarly surreal -- so much so as to force one to ask that familiar question: Does Trump actually believe what he's saying?

This tweet reminded me of that moment during the campaign when Trump stood before the cameras and pretended that his long-gone steak company was still in business. That look in his eyes...! He really seemed to believe in his own hallucinations. And now, he really seems to believe what he says about Haberman, Cohen and that "drugged up loser."  

(On a similar note, Trump recently repeated the lie that the electoral college favors Democrats. Good Lord. Does that twit even know how the electoral college works?)

By the way: You probably already know that Haberman has identified the "drugged up loser" as Sam Nunberg, even though his pal Roger Stone is the one who admitted that Trump often speaks of Cohen disparagingly. One of these days we'll learn the truth about what these people truly think about each other -- and about which ones have done which drugs.

State of play. For months, I've been hoping that New York state charges will checkmate Trump's pardon power. Unfortunately, a loophole in New York law prevents NY Attorney General Eric Schneiderman from prosecuting those whom Trump has pardoned at the federal level. The current attempt to close that loophole may not succeed.

The New York legislation may have good chances. Democrats hold a healthy majority in the state Assembly. In the state Senate, one Democrat caucuses with Republicans, giving the GOP a one-seat majority.

"Good chances"? That doesn't sound so good to me. Perhaps a reader more conversant with NY state politics may be in a position to tell me whether this gambit stands a chance.

Look, I'm not saying that all is lost and Resistance is futile. We still have a chance to defeat Trump -- and even if we did not, we must fight the good fight for existentialist reasons. Who knows? Maybe New York's state legislators will choose the path of honor -- and even if they do not, we may discover other paths to justice. This amusing story gives me some hope for the midterms, although I cannot forget that the Russians (and others) probably possess the ability to hack into the vote tabulators. Giuliani's decision to join Trump's legal team should not make anyone feel more secure.

Whenever rah-rah optimism becomes de rigeur in liberal circles, my cynicism hardens. Remember, nearly everyone predicted a Clinton win in 2016. I did not. Optimism just ain't my style, so don't ask me to pretend that the glass is half-full when I see only a couple of good swigs left.

Remember when Salon regularly published Lord H.A. H.A.?  Here's a recent tweet from Goodman Acres:

Vote #Trump2020 and vote #GOP in 2018. Makes sure the #BlueWave stays in the toilet, along with turds like #Clinton. By the way, she might run again from jail, because indictments on the horizon. #McCabe going to sing like #CelineDion. #Comey still has #Memos left in SCIF

I enjoyed this response:

Hey, HA HA, I've asked a lot of MAGAts & so far have only been met with crickets or blocked: When is that red pill, #qbert, Storm supposed to start? I was told the Roy Moore loss was supposed to trigger it. Then when Hillary was indicted. And how do I get Soros to pay me?

I too have been accused of taking Soros money. If so, why do I have to order my "heart attack specials" off the value menu, and why am I still using a computer I built in 2010?

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